Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x998a…745b weather 443 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$265 (-5%) realized −$217 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%177W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$54
14 days−$86
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$59
crypto 7% −$159
sports 6% +$20
other 2% −$76
politics 1% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +23.5% +11.7% 88% 76% +10.4%
≤30d 105 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 45% -17.2%
≤90d 156 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 46% -18.9%
all 441 -8.8% -17.4% 40% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 38% -14.2%
10% -25.3% 32% -22.4%
15% -32.6% 23% -29.9%
20% -39.2% 18% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$217
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses177 / 264
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)441 / 443
History coverage238d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? No 42¢ 16¢ $76 $30 −$47 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? No 77¢ 72¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$9 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$11 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$13 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Fairfield Stags vs. Marist Red Foxes Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on Dece Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 9? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on Febru Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Presbyterian Blue Hose vs. Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on March 10? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Linda Nosková win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anna Kalinskaya win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on January 12? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tereza Valentová win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will McCartney Kessler win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: LFO YinYang vs Flying Angels (BO1) - United21 x Esplay Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
North Florida Ospreys vs. Central Arkansas Bears Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$19 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$13 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$6 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$7 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$6 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 23¢ $12 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 75¢ $19 7m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 30¢ $26 8m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 81¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 41¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 77¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 65¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 79¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $8 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 35¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 62¢ $22 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 54¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 96¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL No 33¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $7 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.78 · official $48.78 (match) · 1285 history records