Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x998e…e4b6 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%19W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$17
other 25% −$24
sports 16% −$1
crypto 11% −$4
world 6% −$5
economics 5% −$5
culture 3% −$2
tech 2% −$3
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 64 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 119 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 141 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses19 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage103d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 96¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $150 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $89 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $109 −$3 -3%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $62 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $148 −$1 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $552 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $173 −$1 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $726 −$3 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 12 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $665 −$3 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $141 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $59 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $110 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $50 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $46 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 +1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $48 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 5h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 6h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 12h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 13h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $61 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 28h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 29h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 35h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 36h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 40h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 96¢ $10 40h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $10 47h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $26 3d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $11 3d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $6 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $50 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.28 · official $19.29 (match) · 505 history records