Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x998f…75d1 sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$78 (+0%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%53W / 28L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$717per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$642
sports 38% +$1,585
world 11% −$163
other 5% −$512
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 38% -8.4%
≤30d 32 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 38% -8.4%
≤90d 32 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 38% -8.4%
all 81 -10.8% -19.3% 65% 42% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 42% -9.1%
10% -27.0% 27% -17.8%
15% -34.0% 15% -25.7%
20% -40.5% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$558) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$297 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses53 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage170d
Avg bet$717
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $201 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $207 +$214 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $106 +$37 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $108 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $208 +$165 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$118 +113%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $208 +$291 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $518 +$540 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $558 +$430 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $295 +$265 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $723 −$723 -100%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $303 +$114 +38%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 18 $318 +$170 +53%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jan 18 $450 −$450 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jan 18 $830 −$830 -100%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $636 +$159 +25%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $461 −$447 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $221 +$124 +56%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jan 18 $1,214 +$72 +6%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jan 17 $816 −$55 -7%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jan 17 $546 +$31 +6%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jan 17 $892 +$100 +11%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jan 17 $344 +$56 +16%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jan 17 $259 +$23 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jan 17 $294 +$56 +19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jan 16 $982 +$35 +4%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw? Jan 16 $201 +$46 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs ENCE - Map 2 Winner Jan 16 $1,400 +$222 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners (BO3) Jan 16 $134 −$54 -40%
Will Perth Glory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw? Jan 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $306 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $108 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $373 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $208 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $222 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $42 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 2¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $208 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $204 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 292 history records