Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9993…251b crypto 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$874 (-6%) realized −$874 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate59%142W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$318
14 days−$315
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$229
sports 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -32.9% -39.3% 47% 7% -16.2%
≤30d 203 -2.0% -11.4% 62% 31% -10.3%
≤90d 239 -1.9% -11.3% 59% 26% -10.7%
all 239 -1.9% -11.3% 59% 26% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 26% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 19% -19.3%
15% -27.5% 13% -27.1%
20% -34.6% 11% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$874
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses142 / 97
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $67 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $72 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $65 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$1 +1%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $47 $0 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$24 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11PM ET Jun 14 $194 −$11 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$6 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $78 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $78 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $77 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $74 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $68 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $68 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $70 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $68 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $68 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $67 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $65 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $67 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $67 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $67 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $66 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $66 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $65 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $64 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $64 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $64 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $64 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records