Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
99 0x9995…d0d3 other 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,894 (+4%) realized +$2,613 · open +$281
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate61%137W / 88L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,553
7 days+$1,281
14 days+$1,283
30 days+$597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$880
world 29% +$1,819
other 18% +$1,519
tech 7% −$50
economics 4% +$950
sports 3% −$335
crypto 1% −$221
finance 0% −$149
culture 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +30.2% +17.8% 80% 60% +35.5%
≤30d 13 -11.2% -19.7% 54% 31% +0.2%
≤90d 48 -0.0% -9.6% 54% 27% -2.6%
all 225 -6.1% -15.0% 61% 25% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 25% -6.4%
10% -23.1% 18% -15.4%
15% -30.6% 14% -23.6%
20% -37.4% 12% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$105 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$2,778
Realized+$2,613
Unrealized+$281
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses137 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)225 / 234
History coverage230d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $860 $870 +$10 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $370 $476 +$105 (+28%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $458 $460 +$2 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 38¢ $185 $380 +$195 (+105%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $182 $189 +$7 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $183 $182 −$1 (-0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $112 $110 −$2 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 62¢ 45¢ $127 $92 −$35 (-27%)
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? No 94¢ 96¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $616 +$40 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $568 +$932 +164%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $869 +$532 +61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $253 +$48 +19%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 13 $271 −$271 -100%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 11 $208 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $433 +$4 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,227 −$965 -79%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $121 −$16 -13%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $900 +$368 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 25 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? May 06 $261 −$17 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 06 $1,950 +$231 +12%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 06 $124 +$288 +232%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 06 $800 +$180 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $211 −$211 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 05 $220 −$220 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 05 $62 −$62 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 05 $688 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 05 $2,437 +$69 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 29 $280 −$277 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 26 $1,146 +$2 +0%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass? Apr 23 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $376 −$67 -18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? Apr 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 23 $142 −$142 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 23 $100 +$188 +188%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $877 +$22 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $2,433 +$5 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $570 +$430 +75%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $193 +$2 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $188 +$85 +45%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $323 +$171 +53%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $617 +$732 +119%
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear Apr 06 $5 +$39 +718%
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31? Apr 01 $40 −$40 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $445 −$86 -19%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Mar 29 $193 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 25 $191 +$1 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Mar 24 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 22 $58 +$3 +5%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 11 $120 −$20 -16%
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württember Mar 08 $169 −$144 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL No 97¢ $20 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $161 1h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL No 97¢ $11 1h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL No 97¢ $1 2h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL No 97¢ $231 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $183 2h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 94¢ $32 2h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 94¢ $243 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $252 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $270 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $162 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $20 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $377 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $127 18h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $85 30h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 30h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 33h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 82¢ $656 34h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $105 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $80 37h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 37h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 75¢ $300 39h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 79¢ $272 39h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 79¢ $9 39h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 79¢ $35 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $253 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,777.74 · official $2,778.43 (match) · 1119 history records