Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9998…4d99 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 17% +$1
sports 14% +$14
politics 9% −$3
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.3% -8.4% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 +0.3% -9.2% 30% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 21 +4.9% -5.0% 33% 5% -7.3%
all 44 +2.4% -7.3% 36% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 5% -8.3%
10% -16.2% 5% -17.1%
15% -24.3% 5% -25.1%
20% -31.7% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage259d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+2%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +5%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $83 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $53 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $38 +$2 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $34 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $14 +$14 +98%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $3 $0 -13%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $27 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $53 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $26 +$1 +6%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $16 $0 +1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 12 $24 $0 +2%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $1 +$1 +40%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $21 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 10 $3 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 09 $2 $0 -14%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $13 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $23 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 38h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $41 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $13 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $20 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.32 (match) · 180 history records