Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x9999…2ded weather 231 markets active 15h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$676 (+28%) realized +$676 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%115W / 115L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$62
14 days+$15
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% +$650
world 21% −$35
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 39% +2.3%
≤30d 115 +34.4% +21.6% 53% 37% -0.9%
≤90d 228 +45.3% +31.5% 50% 39% +12.4%
all 230 +47.9% +33.8% 50% 40% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.8% 40% +15.4%
10% +21.0% 30% +4.3%
15% +9.3% 26% -5.8%
20% -1.4% 21% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$676
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses115 / 115
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage90d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $7 +$5 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $14 +$3 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $76 +$20 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 +$3 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $7 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $91 +$23 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $27 −$19 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $69 +$26 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $63 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$14 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 +$7 +25%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -58%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 15 $11 +$13 +113%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -63%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $92 −$83 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 +$2 +844%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 84¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 54¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 81¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 83¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 80¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 80¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $90 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 90¢ $9 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 82¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 82¢ $21 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 74¢ $22 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 73¢ $16 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1785 history records