Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x999a…9a25 sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3439 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,957 (-5%) realized −$3,274 · open −$1,683
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate49%29W / 30L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,672per market
Trades / day3439.0pace
Fees−$327est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,724now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$44
sports 33% −$938
world 29% −$5,154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3439 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 22% -14.9%
≤30d 59 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 22% -14.9%
≤90d 59 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 22% -14.9%
all 59 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 22% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3439.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 22% -14.9%
10% -21.3% 10% -23.0%
15% ← realistic here -28.9% 8% -30.5%
20% -35.9% 5% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$817) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
36.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$212 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,724
Realized−$3,274
Unrealized−$1,683
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses29 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$327
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 56
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$1,672
Trades / day3439.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $2,021 $3,691 +$1,670 (+83%)
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 65¢ 100¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+55%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ 57¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 38¢ $1,681 $2 −$1,679 (-100%)
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Pigeons 36¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 27 $121 −$558 -460%
ITF Rome: Ariana Arseneault vs Elizabeth Ionescu Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Bergamo: Denis Constantin Spiridon vs Leonardo Borrelli Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 27 $10 −$11 -109%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $863 −$20 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10,790 −$208 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $26,886 −$5,154 -19%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $602 +$3 +0%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,311 +$27 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $18 +$7 +38%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $514 +$30 +6%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $25 −$4 -17%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $62 −$22 -35%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $93 −$4 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $12 −$2 -16%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $20 −$7 -34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6,280 +$175 +3%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $3,754 +$457 +12%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $2,434 +$190 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,633 −$58 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,756 +$26 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3,314 −$35 -1%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $202 −$20 -10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 27 $3 +$5 +196%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 27 $56 −$5 -9%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $5 −$3 -50%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $81 −$15 -18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $73 −$10 -14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $50 +$7 +13%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $22 +$2 +9%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 27 $208 −$24 -12%
ITF Claremont: Oliver Ojakaar vs Jagger Leach Jun 27 $37 +$13 +35%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America Jun 27 $172 +$4 +2%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero Jun 26 $81 +$14 +18%
ITF Claremont: Anne-Christine Lutkemeyer vs Alexis Nguyen Jun 26 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $195 −$95 -49%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $817 −$10 -1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,143 +$4 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5,797 +$183 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3,055 −$18 -1%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $3,651 +$36 +1%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Fangran Tian vs Amandine Hesse Jun 26 $16 −$1 -6%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Carolyn Ansari Jun 26 $36 −$23 -64%
ITF Brussels: Max Hans Rehberg vs Samuele Pieri Jun 26 $38 +$14 +37%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov Jun 26 $197 +$12 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $217 +$1 +1%
ITF Rzeszow: Alan Wazny vs Karol Filar Jun 26 $25 +$3 +10%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $23 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 99¢ $367 27m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 98¢ $365 27m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 98¢ $119 27m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 98¢ $364 27m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No $6 27m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 99¢ $368 27m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No $8 27m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No $9 27m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 96¢ $53 27m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No $9 27m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 96¢ $96 27m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 27m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $360 27m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $35 27m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $69 27m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $67 27m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 96¢ $358 27m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 96¢ $0 27m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No $16 28m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No $6 28m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 98¢ $366 28m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No $6 28m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 96¢ $54 28m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 96¢ $256 28m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 96¢ $47 28m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $361 28m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No $23 29m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No $5 29m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 94¢ $49 29m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No $2 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,723.74 · official $3,723.74 (match) · 3500 history records