Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x999b…6436 other 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-0%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$32
14 days−$42
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$25
other 24% −$49
sports 20% −$19
crypto 11% −$21
economics 5% +$1
world 5% −$7
finance 4% $0
culture 3% −$5
tech 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 71 -1.3% -10.7% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 122 -0.9% -10.4% 11% 0% -10.1%
all 142 -0.8% -10.3% 14% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage109d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $159 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 17 $39 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $53 −$14 -26%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $203 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $199 −$2 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $52 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $425 −$2 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $58 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $105 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $157 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $376 −$4 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $51 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $54 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $69 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $93 −$1 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 07 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $55 −$2 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $59 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $58 1h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $53 2h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $53 7h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $67 7h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $67 13h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $64 13h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $65 17h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $53 18h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $53 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 39h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $49 40h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 47h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 90¢ $36 47h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $65 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $65 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $43 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 97¢ $38 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $64 3d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $64 3d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $39 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.51 · official $57.51 (match) · 596 history records