Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x999f…addb world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,798 (-14%) realized −$2,675 · open −$1,123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%38W / 24L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5,146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$660
7 days+$1,110
14 days−$177
30 days−$2,556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$716
politics 16% −$1,547
other 16% −$351
crypto 8% −$1,215
finance 8% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +25.7% +13.7% 91% 45% +5.8%
≤30d 62 -9.1% -17.7% 61% 40% -21.0%
≤90d 62 -9.1% -17.7% 61% 40% -21.0%
all 62 -9.1% -17.7% 61% 40% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 40% -21.0%
10% -25.6% 24% -28.5%
15% -32.8% 16% -35.4%
20% -39.4% 10% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -34% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$210 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$5,146
Realized−$2,675
Unrealized−$1,123
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses38 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions27
Markets (closed)62 / 90
History coverage23d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $2,407 $2,305 −$102 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $482 $464 −$17 (-4%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $301 $328 +$27 (+9%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $264 $261 −$3 (-1%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $213 $188 −$26 (-12%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $164 $162 −$1 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $158 $143 −$15 (-10%)
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026? Yes 49¢ 34¢ $200 $138 −$62 (-31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $142 $128 −$14 (-10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 76¢ 92¢ $84 $102 +$18 (+22%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhao Leji in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $95 $94 −$0 (-1%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 96¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 94¢ 92¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-2%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 38¢ 26¢ $119 $81 −$37 (-32%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $147 $80 −$66 (-45%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $106 $78 −$28 (-26%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $98 $69 −$29 (-29%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $68 $58 −$11 (-16%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 56¢ 88¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+56%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $100 $12 −$88 (-88%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 52¢ 1¢ $498 $8 −$490 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $108 −$1 -0%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 17 $165 +$21 +13%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $334 +$1 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $420 +$432 +103%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $981 +$128 +13%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $90 +$2 +2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $86 +$1 +2%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 17 $482 +$17 +3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 17 $94 +$23 +25%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $181 +$12 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $344 +$21 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $353 +$17 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $168 +$11 +7%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $300 +$2 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 15 $1,484 +$217 +15%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $13 +$5 +40%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $114 +$56 +49%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 14 $472 +$59 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $8 +$17 +222%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $162 +$65 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $444 +$228 +51%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $32 +$10 +30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $223 +$131 +59%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $250 +$10 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $121 +$35 +29%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $98 +$61 +62%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $328 −$328 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
US x China Military clash before 2027? Jun 06 $218 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 06 $291 $0 -0%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 06 $364 −$5 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $596 −$218 -36%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $110 +$20 +19%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $188 +$50 +27%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $206 +$33 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,942 −$1,244 -64%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June Jun 02 $118 −$118 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1,289 +$181 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 01 $484 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $246 +$82 +33%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $260 −$260 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $107 −$53 -50%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $93 +$16 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $360 +$199 +55%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $194 +$5 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 31 $827 −$741 -90%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 31 $64 −$37 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $108 1h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 72¢ $186 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $336 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $852 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $120 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $94 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $115 18h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $1,103 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $108 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $255 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $96 20h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $95 20h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $93 20h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $87 20h
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $89 20h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 85¢ $111 20h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $117 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $193 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $365 20h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $80 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,146.04 · official $5,134.78 (match) · 502 history records