Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
99 0x99a1…1310 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$690 (-4%) realized −$686 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%39W / 1L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$10
politics 36% −$704
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 40 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -14.3%
10% -18.2% 0% -22.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -30.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$706 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$2,524
Realized−$686
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses39 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage618d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,572 $1,569 −$3 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $956 $956 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $2,444 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 22 $424 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 22 $816 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 22 $1,280 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 19 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 19 $806 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Feb 19 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from September 19 to September 26, 202 Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Feb 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Feb 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $35 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $163 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 14 $21 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 14 $62 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $582 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $580 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 21 $5,029 −$706 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,572 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $956 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,444 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $82 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $816 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $424 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,280 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $790 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $193 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 101d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 101d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 101d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 101d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $14 123d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $25 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 123d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $3 277d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $4 277d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 98¢ $10 277d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 277d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 277d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 99¢ $7 277d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 99¢ $3 277d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 277d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, BUY No 100¢ $2 277d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 19 to September 26, BUY No 100¢ $1 277d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from September 19 to September 26, BUY No 100¢ $1 277d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from September 19 to September 26, BUY No 100¢ $2 277d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,524.37 · official $2,525.16 (match) · 112 history records