Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
99 0x99a2…feed sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$718 (+5%) realized +$735 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%71W / 58L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$66
14 days+$34
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$748
crypto 0% −$62
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.6% +6.4% 50% 50% +9.1%
≤30d 8 +22.8% +11.1% 50% 50% +6.4%
≤90d 55 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 47% -17.2%
all 129 +7.9% -2.4% 55% 51% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 51% -5.0%
10% -11.7% 46% -14.1%
15% -20.3% 40% -22.4%
20% -28.1% 36% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$68 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$735
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses71 / 58
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions10
Markets (closed)129 / 139
History coverage130d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $44 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-44%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 18¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-55%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $48 +$71 +150%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $70 −$62 -90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $17 +$13 +74%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $59 −$57 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $122 +$102 +84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $93 −$32 -34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $42 +$47 +111%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 11 $30 +$16 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $88 −$79 -90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 1 Winner May 10 $63 +$34 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $77 +$88 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $92 +$38 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $44 +$11 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $100 +$64 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $189 +$171 +90%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $83 +$61 +74%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $45 −$30 -67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $163 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $52 +$55 +106%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $183 −$75 -41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $136 +$51 +38%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Apr 15 $63 −$30 -47%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $99 +$89 +91%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $122 +$27 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $137 −$111 -81%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Apr 14 $196 −$37 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Apr 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $162 −$55 -34%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Apr 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Apr 14 $261 −$261 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $182 −$182 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $67 +$7 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Apr 09 $129 +$99 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Wildcard - Map 1 Winner Apr 07 $152 +$98 +64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Apr 07 $200 +$22 +11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 06 $61 +$48 +79%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $57 +$75 +131%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Apr 04 $94 +$70 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $14 34m
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 2h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $43 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $71 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 11¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 11¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 11¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 11¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 11¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $16 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.33 · official $138.33 (match) · 744 history records