Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x99a4…d68b world 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-4%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$2
other 31% −$10
tech 13% −$9
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +18.2% +6.9% 100% 50% +4.6%
≤30d 2 +18.2% +6.9% 100% 50% +4.6%
≤90d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 29% -14.0%
all 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 29% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 29% -14.0%
10% -17.8% 29% -22.2%
15% -25.7% 14% -29.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage49d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $49 +$18 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 06 $99 −$20 -20%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 05 $50 −$10 -20%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? May 04 $50 −$9 -18%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 03 $49 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 02 $10 +$3 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records