Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99a5…95cf weather 488 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (640 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$222 (-2%) realized −$164 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate80%254W / 65L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day640.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$330
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (640 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 319 +37.1% +24.0% 80% 27% -5.5%
≤30d 319 +37.1% +24.0% 80% 27% -5.5%
≤90d 319 +37.1% +24.0% 80% 27% -5.5%
all 319 +37.1% +24.0% 80% 27% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover640.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.0% 27% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here +12.2% 18% -14.5%
15% +1.3% 17% -22.8%
20% -8.6% 14% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$4,279
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses254 / 65
Open positions169
Markets (closed)319 / 488
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day640.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 169 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 91¢ 100¢ $135 $148 +$13 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? No 93¢ 89¢ $133 $127 −$6 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? No 88¢ 90¢ $119 $122 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? No 91¢ 90¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? No 89¢ 96¢ $107 $116 +$8 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? No 97¢ 98¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 92¢ 100¢ $92 $100 +$8 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? No 96¢ 96¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? No 94¢ 94¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $64 $66 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? No 95¢ 95¢ $64 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? No 92¢ 96¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 96¢ 92¢ $58 $55 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 88¢ 100¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 94¢ 88¢ $58 $54 −$4 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? No 95¢ 98¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $12 $51 +$39 (+321%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? No 88¢ 88¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? No 88¢ 94¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? No 87¢ 100¢ $42 $49 +$6 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? No 90¢ 100¢ $43 $48 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? No 88¢ 95¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $166 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$13 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $47 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +199%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $6 6m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $8 29m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $9 29m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $8 29m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $9 29m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 93¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $15 29m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,279.09 · official $4,278.38 (match) · 3500 history records