Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99a8…87c6 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$8
world 5% $0
sports 1% $0
other 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 19 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 22 -6.4% -15.3% 5% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -10.0%
10% -23.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage247d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $209 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1 $0 -19%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $199 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $159 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $209 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $188 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $179 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 7h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 11h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 15h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 16h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 17h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 18h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 19h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 26h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 28h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 29h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 37h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 37h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 38h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 38h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 42h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 42h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 43h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 43h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 44h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 47h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.57 · official $207.57 (match) · 68 history records