Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99a9…6358 crypto 51 markets active 3h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-27%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$35
other 26% −$13
world 11% $0
weather 9% −$7
sports 6% −$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -54.2% -58.6% 23% 15% -59.4%
≤30d 51 -36.5% -42.6% 37% 22% -34.3%
≤90d 51 -36.5% -42.6% 37% 22% -34.3%
all 51 -36.5% -42.6% 37% 22% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 22% -34.3%
10% -48.1% 16% -40.6%
15% -53.1% 6% -46.4%
20% -57.7% 2% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$2 +26%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $7 $0 -3%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $9 −$6 -70%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $20 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 4¢ $0 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $1 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 72¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 18¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 78¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records