Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x99ab…65a1 sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$157 (+5%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate74%31W / 11L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$115
14 days+$153
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$82
other 25% +$37
crypto 8% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.8% -13.8% 79% 42% -5.1%
≤30d 42 +4.4% -5.5% 74% 50% -5.0%
≤90d 42 +4.4% -5.5% 74% 50% -5.0%
all 42 +4.4% -5.5% 74% 50% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 50% -5.0%
10% -14.6% 33% -14.1%
15% -22.8% 19% -22.4%
20% -30.4% 10% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses31 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 48
History coverage13d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $290 +$5 +2%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $280 +$11 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $246 +$35 +14%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $240 +$5 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $260 +$28 +11%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $240 +$7 +3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $65 +$3 +4%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $188 +$4 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $190 +$67 +35%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1 +$1 +73%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 +$1 +32%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $6 +$2 +29%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $224 +$16 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 +$6 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $190 +$8 +4%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $81 +$13 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +612%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$4 +72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $141 +$18 +13%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $30 +$4 +12%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $30 +$7 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $169 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 98¢ $290 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 96¢ $280 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $281 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 86¢ $246 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 98¢ $240 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 14h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 BUY 24¢ $7 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $288 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $260 30h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $65 31h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Canada 98¢ $188 31h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $247 31h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 97¢ $240 32h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 53¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $257 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $190 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 53¢ $1 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $1 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $2 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $6 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $240 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $224 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND N BUY 19¢ $2 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 39¢ $4 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: F BUY 13¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records