Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99ad…fa27 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$313 (-8%) realized −$294 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$513
7 days−$184
14 days−$206
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$196
sports 28% −$340
crypto 3% −$40
politics 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -23.4% -30.7% 25% 25% -13.7%
≤30d 61 -24.9% -32.1% 25% 25% -14.2%
≤90d 61 -24.9% -32.1% 25% 25% -14.2%
all 61 -24.9% -32.1% 25% 25% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 25% -14.2%
10% -38.6% 21% -22.4%
15% -44.5% 18% -29.9%
20% -49.9% 16% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$30 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$294
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 46
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage8d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Mentality Monster 9¢ 26¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+204%)
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season Stray Kittens 39¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $122 +$115 +95%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$4 -8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $355 +$121 +34%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $41 +$140 +342%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $197 +$104 +53%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 +$47 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $131 −$111 -85%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$84 -82%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$12 -39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 −$233 -58%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 +$123 +41%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $391 +$204 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $31 +$19 +62%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Jun 16 $37 −$23 -62%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $402 +$258 +64%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $41 −$32 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$14 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $5 +$20 +395%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 9¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu BUY Stray Kittens 39¢ $41 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 95¢ $237 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 13¢ $21 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $47 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $122 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $283 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $152 7h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 52¢ $193 7h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $203 7h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $181 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 7h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 25¢ $94 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $102 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $300 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $197 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $248 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $201 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 8¢ $20 28h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $131 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.50 · official $30.50 (match) · 150 history records