Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99ad…064e sports 478 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,366 (-8%) realized −$1,366 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%269W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$143
14 days−$512
30 days−$883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,267
crypto 5% −$261
other 3% +$128
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -37.9% -43.8% 41% 35% -36.1%
≤30d 98 -21.8% -29.3% 43% 37% -28.2%
≤90d 204 -17.2% -25.1% 49% 41% -20.3%
all 478 -8.1% -16.9% 56% 46% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 46% -17.2%
10% -24.8% 34% -25.1%
15% -32.1% 26% -32.3%
20% -38.7% 17% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$22 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,366
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses269 / 209
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions0
Markets (closed)478 / 478
History coverage222d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 478 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $19 +$11 +59%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $79 +$21 +26%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $76 +$14 +19%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $23 +$15 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +96%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $25 +$2 +6%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $22 −$6 -26%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$10 -82%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $38 −$25 -66%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $45 −$8 -17%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $41 +$4 +10%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $34 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$38 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$19 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$4 -21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +19%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $13 +$4 +29%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $15 −$2 -13%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $46 −$10 -21%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $101 −$79 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -60%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $214 −$21 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $40 −$33 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$13 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $80 −$76 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$7 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina SELL McCartney Kessler 100¢ $30 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 63¢ $19 1h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Adam Walton 100¢ $100 3h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 79¢ $79 3h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 59¢ $15 3h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Alex Molcan 60¢ $22 6h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Alex Molcan 60¢ $3 6h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Alex Molcan 60¢ $15 6h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Alex Molcan 60¢ $6 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 66¢ $28 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 66¢ $23 8h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $52 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 74¢ $38 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 66¢ $39 26h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $9 29h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $0 29h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $21 30h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $4 30h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $3 30h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Liudmila Samsonova 84¢ $38 33h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 50¢ $23 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $20 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 38h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $27 39h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 93¢ $25 39h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 32¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1325 history records