Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
99 0x99af…d094 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%37W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$1
crypto 13% +$1
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 50 +0.3% -9.3% 74% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses37 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage535d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $88 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 03 $47 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $5,992 −$6 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Feb 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? Feb 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? Jan 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 09 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $88 30d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $75 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 93d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $57 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 120d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 123d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 123d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 150d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 94¢ $70 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $19 181d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $67 182d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $19 211d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $66 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 100¢ $9 241d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $28 242d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $48 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $27 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $44 273d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? BUY No 100¢ $31 302d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $48 302d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $31 333d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $47 335d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $42 365d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 392d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 393d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.17 · official $91.17 (match) · 105 history records