Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99b3…b82f world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$2
world 27% −$2
politics 14% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 7% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 27% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 27% 0% -10.6%
all 37 -1.6% -10.9% 24% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage266d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $26 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $28 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $13 −$4 -29%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $142 −$1 -1%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 07 $142 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Jan 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jan 31 $4 $0 -12%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $4 $0 -10%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $26 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $26 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $26 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $25 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 25¢ $9 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $0 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $13 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $14 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $14 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $0.91 (match) · 111 history records