Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99b4…ecc0 other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+4%) realized +$15 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$64
other 31% +$18
sports 14% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -13.5% -21.7% 55% 48% -20.9%
≤30d 29 -13.5% -21.7% 55% 48% -20.9%
≤90d 29 -13.5% -21.7% 55% 48% -20.9%
all 29 -13.5% -21.7% 55% 48% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 48% -20.9%
10% -29.2% 38% -28.5%
15% -36.0% 34% -35.4%
20% -42.3% 17% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage5d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 56¢ 70¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group St Jun 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -58%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group St SELL Yes 80¢ $19 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 78¢ $12 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 79¢ $12 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 24h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 28h
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.01 · official $22.01 (match) · 72 history records