Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x99b5…b2b4 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+1%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 112L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$9
politics 40% −$8
sports 6% +$121
tech 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 113 +2.3% -7.5% 9% 5% -9.1%
all 129 +2.1% -7.6% 13% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 8% -9.0%
10% -16.5% 6% -17.7%
15% -24.5% 5% -25.7%
20% -31.9% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×20.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 112
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage117d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $150 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $338 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 12 $191 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $315 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $160 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $293 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $187 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $335 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $154 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $125 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $119 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $144 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $153 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $139 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $157 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $347 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $299 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $136 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $330 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $189 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 5h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $25 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $28 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $154 29d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $154 29d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $150 29d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $150 30d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $166 30d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $166 31d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $190 32d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 32d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $155 33d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $155 33d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $129 33d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $129 34d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $181 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 332 history records