Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x99b5…7540 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 504d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%43W / 9L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$2
other 13% $0
politics 12% $0
tech 6% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 +0.2% -9.4% 83% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

504d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses43 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage504d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in December? Jan 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Oct 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in July? Aug 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 25 $18 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 19 $35 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 30d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 61d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $53 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 90d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 92d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 148d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 149d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $48 150d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $20 182d
Will BNB dip to $400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $42 182d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $16 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $34 243d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 272d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $27 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 301d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $32 301d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $4 332d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 332d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in July? BUY No 100¢ $42 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 362d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 363d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.99 · official $50.99 (match) · 116 history records