Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99b5…fde7 crypto 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$495 (+5%) realized +$495 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%103W / 68L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$375
world 1% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -17.2% -25.1% 53% 53% -7.1%
≤30d 15 -17.2% -25.1% 53% 53% -7.1%
≤90d 106 -17.1% -25.0% 54% 51% -14.7%
all 171 -0.7% -10.2% 60% 58% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 58% -4.5%
10% -18.8% 50% -13.6%
15% -26.6% 41% -22.0%
20% -33.8% 29% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$37 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$495
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses103 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 171
History coverage126d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $56 +$33 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$56 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $313 +$59 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $314 +$93 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $77 +$46 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $127 +$59 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $194 −$190 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $130 +$130 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 19 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 19 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 19 $188 +$55 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 19 $204 +$98 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 19 $188 +$60 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 19 $107 −$105 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 19 $77 +$51 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 19 $55 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 19 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 22 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 22 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 22 $140 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 22 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 22 $60 +$27 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 22 $40 +$17 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 22 $67 +$19 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 17 $45 +$25 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 17 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 17 $30 −$29 -96%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 17 $15 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 17 $57 +$16 +29%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 06 $30 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 06 $38 +$62 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 06 $111 +$17 +15%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 06 $40 −$1 -2%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 06 $10 +$28 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 641 history records