Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

99 0x99c0…be17 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$408 (+26%) realized +$294 · open +$114

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown58%max

Avg bet$258per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+18.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+31.4%	+18.9%	75%	50%	+5.8%
≤30d	4	+31.4%	+18.9%	75%	50%	+5.8%
≤90d	4	+31.4%	+18.9%	75%	50%	+5.8%
all	4	+31.4%	+18.9%	75%	50%	+5.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.9%	50%	+5.8%
10%	+7.5%	50%	-4.4%
15%	-2.9%	50%	-13.6%
20%	-12.4%	25%	-22.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +31% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$160 vs −$277 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$464

Realized+$294

Unrealized+$114

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$258

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown58%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5	Over	64¢	100¢	$200	$312	+$112 (+56%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$150	$152	+$2 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$354	−$277	-78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$202	+$74	+37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$400	+$9	+2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$240	+$396	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$152	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5	BUY Over	64¢	$202	2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	SELL Over	15¢	$77	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	82¢	$276	2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	BUY Over	65¢	$354	3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	98¢	$400	5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$202	6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	37¢	$240	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $463.91 · official $463.91 (match) · 10 history records