Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:38:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
99 0x99c1…9f5f other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$394 (+11%) realized +$390 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$601per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$840
sports 42% +$141
crypto 9% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -36.9% -42.9% 40% 40% -25.4%
≤30d 5 -36.9% -42.9% 40% 40% -25.4%
≤90d 5 -36.9% -42.9% 40% 40% -25.4%
all 5 -36.9% -42.9% 40% 40% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 40% -25.4%
10% -48.3% 0% -32.6%
15% -53.3% 0% -39.1%
20% -57.9% 0% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$290 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized+$390
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$601
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $300 $304 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$13 -12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$18 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $197 −$53 -27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,464 −$805 -55%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,426 +$153 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $91 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $120 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 0¢ $42 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $208 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $311 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,516 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,017 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 19¢ $153 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $207 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $64 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $132 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $39 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $42 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $111 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 31¢ $229 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $52 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $104 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $103 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $205 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $205 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.75 · official $303.75 (match) · 38 history records