Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
99 0x99c3…37e4 world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$956 (+71%) realized +$843 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$964
other 22% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 50% +80.5%
≤30d 2 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 50% +80.5%
≤90d 2 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 50% +80.5%
all 2 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 50% +80.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.9% 50% +80.5%
10% +20.2% 50% +63.2%
15% +8.6% 50% +47.4%
20% -2.1% 50% +33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$956 vs −$109 · ×8.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.78 per $1 lost it wins $8.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized+$843
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 87¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $98 $203 +$105 (+108%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 55¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$109 -54%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $649 +$956 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $91 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 23¢ $89 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $81 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $100 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 85¢ $300 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $1,605 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $44 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $600 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $5 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.02 · official $610.10 (match) · 13 history records