Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
99 0x99c4…f247 sports 220 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$369 (+19%) realized +$371 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%72W / 139L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$464
7 days+$579
14 days+$579
30 days+$579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$397
other 41% +$85
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +145.9% +122.5% 64% 64% +116.9%
≤30d 22 +145.9% +122.5% 64% 64% +116.9%
≤90d 211 +11.2% +0.6% 34% 34% +15.3%
all 211 +11.2% +0.6% 34% 34% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 34% +15.3%
10% -9.0% 34% +4.3%
15% -17.8% 34% -5.8%
20% -25.9% 34% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$371
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses72 / 139
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)211 / 220
History coverage74d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $36 +$64 +180%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $17 +$83 +480%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $37 +$83 +226%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $33 +$67 +206%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $24 −$23 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$44 +290%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$45 +291%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $18 +$132 +712%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$24 +95%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $14 +$36 +262%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$51 +276%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$16 +163%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 +$30 +325%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-03-17? Apr 14 $9 −$9 -100%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Apr 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Sharks vs. Predators Apr 14 $10 +$13 +127%
Wild vs. Blues Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Red Wings vs. Lightning Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
CD Tondela vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 13 $6 +$18 +276%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Levante UD vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $10 −$10 -98%
ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 13 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $10 +$9 +93%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 3.5 Apr 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $5 +$8 +158%
Estoril Praia vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $4 +$8 +180%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $8 +$21 +262%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $6 +$31 +509%
Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $4 +$10 +226%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $16 +$35 +221%
Will Kocaelispor win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $4 −$4 -98%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $61 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $29 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY 12¢ $26 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY $21 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $36 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $120 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $26 9h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 9h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $33 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $24 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 12¢ $15 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 AND Will Bosnia and He BUY $10 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $9 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $8 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $9 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $0 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $37 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $18 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY 10¢ $10 38h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $15 38h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 25¢ $15 38h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $16 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $14 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $25 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 26¢ $18 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.50 · official $130.50 · 312 history records