trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -9.0% | -17.6% | 38% | 0% | -21.3% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -6.1% | -15.0% | 33% | 0% | -19.0% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -11.3% | -19.7% | 29% | 0% | -20.6% |
| all | 21 | -11.3% | -19.7% | 29% | 0% | -20.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.7% | 0% | -20.6% |
| 10% | -27.4% | 0% | -28.2% |
| 15% | -34.4% | 0% | -35.1% |
| 20% | -40.8% | 0% | -41.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 95¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? | Jun 16 | $18 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? | Jun 16 | $6 | −$1 | -13% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 15 | $27 | −$4 | -15% |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $42 | −$10 | -24% |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, | Jun 13 | $9 | −$2 | -21% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | Jun 13 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? | Jun 11 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | Jun 09 | $3 | −$1 | -28% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? | Jun 04 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 04 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? | Jun 03 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? | May 26 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? | May 21 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 | May 21 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? | May 21 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 24? | May 19 | $3 | $0 | -14% |
| Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? | May 19 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 7°C or below on May 1? | Apr 30 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on April 21? | Apr 21 | $10 | −$2 | -26% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 21 | Apr 20 | $1 | $0 | -1% |