Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x99c9…4c22 sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25,695 (-39%) realized −$25,692 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%47W / 103L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$206
14 days+$1,122
30 days+$1,314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$6,312
crypto 36% −$16,561
other 8% −$983
tech 3% −$472
politics 2% −$1,183
economics 1% −$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +9.7% -0.8% 43% 43% -4.0%
≤30d 70 +2.9% -6.9% 40% 39% +4.1%
≤90d 77 -3.8% -13.0% 38% 35% -4.6%
all 150 -16.1% -24.1% 31% 30% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 30% -46.7%
10% -31.4% 28% -51.8%
15% -38.0% 26% -56.5%
20% -44.1% 25% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$407 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$25,692
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses47 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage591d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 −$8 -16%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 28 $29 −$28 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $120 +$107 +89%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $73 −$9 -13%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $193 +$98 +51%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $296 −$289 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $303 −$14 -5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $62 −$61 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $56 +$362 +643%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $141 −$138 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $124 −$122 -99%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals Jun 26 $81 +$119 +146%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $200 +$141 +70%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $162 +$26 +16%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $98 −$97 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $150 −$148 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $283 +$36 +13%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $60 −$37 -62%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $300 +$164 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $78 +$82 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $434 +$136 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $263 +$347 +132%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $288 +$433 +150%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $92 +$97 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$3 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 +$103 +67%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $39 +$44 +114%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $387 +$153 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $519 +$109 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $240 −$21 -9%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $73 −$71 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $89 −$17 -19%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $195 −$25 -13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$135 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $66 +$19 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $37 +$22 +60%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 12 $99 −$97 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$28 +543%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $92 +$107 +116%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$8 -8%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $90 −$89 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $71 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 15¢ $43 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 7h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $29 7h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $226 7h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $64 7h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $73 7h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $10 7h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $17 7h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $92 7h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $291 7h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $193 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $296 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $289 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $303 37h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $62 37h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $419 38h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $56 38h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $40 39h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $60 39h
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $200 39h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $61 39h
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $81 39h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $341 39h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $64 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $41 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $105 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $98 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $200 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.50 · official $267.50 (match) · 393 history records