Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x99ca…b2b3 crypto 1583 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$473 (+4%) realized +$474 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%786W / 651L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$671
7 days+$2,418
14 days+$2,512
30 days+$2,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,473
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 398 +28.3% +16.1% 64% 64% +20.9%
≤30d 954 +17.0% +5.9% 58% 58% +16.5%
≤90d 1437 +10.4% -0.1% 55% 55% +12.9%
all 1437 +10.4% -0.1% 55% 55% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 55% +12.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 54% +2.1%
15% -18.4% 54% -7.8%
20% -26.4% 53% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$474
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses786 / 651
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1437 / 1583
History coverage52d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$60 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $61 +$59 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$58 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$41 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $38 +$42 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$43 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$41 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$39 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$39 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $39 +$41 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $44 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $61 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.00 · official $105.60 · 2946 history records