Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99cb…f629 world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$4,513 (-4%) realized −$4,934 · open +$421
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%37W / 24L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,658per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$15,877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$659
14 days−$461
30 days−$2,400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$11,389
other 24% +$251
politics 17% +$8,004
sports 1% −$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.8% +8.4% 44% 44% -32.9%
≤30d 26 +5.9% -4.2% 62% 54% -23.8%
≤90d 61 -9.9% -18.5% 61% 39% -13.2%
all 61 -9.9% -18.5% 61% 39% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 39% -13.2%
10% -26.3% 20% -21.5%
15% -33.4% 15% -29.1%
20% -40.0% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$974) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$634 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$15,877
Realized−$4,934
Unrealized+$421
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses37 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)61 / 73
History coverage81d
Avg bet$1,658
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $14,536 $14,906 +$370 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $579 $612 +$33 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 90¢ 100¢ $135 $149 +$14 (+11%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $38 $40 +$3 (+7%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $14 +$2 (+12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $107 +$43 +40%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $619 −$116 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $472 −$338 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $369 −$129 -35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $354 −$260 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $200 −$52 -26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$49 +99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Anja Stankovic Jun 12 $22 +$51 +238%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $355 +$94 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $96 +$54 +56%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $724 +$54 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $350 +$44 +12%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $360 +$11 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $215 +$35 +16%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,320 +$180 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $142 +$12 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $419 +$63 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $237 −$235 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $276 +$58 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 28 $290 +$60 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $521 +$59 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $175 +$75 +43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $5,549 −$1,185 -21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 24 $267 −$267 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $2,032 −$757 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $280 +$54 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $1,003 +$47 +5%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec May 08 $9 −$4 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 06 $80 −$8 -10%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Leganés end in a draw? May 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $1,179 +$275 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 30 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $207 +$86 +42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $943 +$143 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $1,000 +$150 +15%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $30,827 −$9,491 -31%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 15 $20,355 +$7,738 +38%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 15 $730 +$270 +37%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Blockx vs Alex de Minaur Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $3,808 +$22 +1%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? Apr 10 $3,025 +$692 +23%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $2,576 +$480 +19%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $456 −$40 -9%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1,190 +$59 +5%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $12 $0 +3%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Flavio Cobolli vs Francisco Comesana Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026 Apr 07 $83 −$50 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $79 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $116 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $250 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $502 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $128 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $13 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $107 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 36¢ $25 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $18 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $94 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $209 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $354 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $148 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $135 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 30¢ $71 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 4d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Anja Stankovic BUY Marie Mettraux 29¢ $22 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $218 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 27¢ $123 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $59 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,877.19 · official $15,877.20 (match) · 362 history records