Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99cd…0eea sports 19 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$131 (-22%) realized −$34 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$249
other 32% −$111
politics 18% −$97
world 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% +18.4%
≤30d 16 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% +18.4%
≤90d 16 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% +18.4%
all 16 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 38% +18.4%
10% -14.9% 38% +7.1%
15% -23.2% 38% -3.3%
20% -30.7% 31% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$17 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $100 $3 −$97 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0. Jun 23 $51 +$40 +78%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 +$17 +66%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Scor Jun 22 $51 +$102 +200%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $52 +$21 +40%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$33 +309%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$79 +370%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $2.92 (match) · 26 history records