Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99d0…aa63 politics 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$139 (-1%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$13
politics 39% −$13
sports 7% −$115
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 127 -3.9% -13.0% 3% 2% -10.0%
all 140 -5.9% -14.9% 8% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 4% -10.0%
10% -23.0% 2% -18.6%
15% -30.5% 1% -26.5%
20% -37.3% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage115d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $151 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $277 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $389 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $346 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $320 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $147 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $125 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $418 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $140 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $131 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $147 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $293 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $525 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $153 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $311 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $174 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $471 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $343 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $159 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $344 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $148 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $309 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $125 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $158 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $180 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $286 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 29 $127 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $484 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 6h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $24 28h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $24 39h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 39h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $18 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $151 22d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $151 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $147 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $162 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $162 25d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $136 26d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $136 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $171 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $171 26d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $153 26d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $153 27d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $147 27d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $147 27d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $151 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $151 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 402 history records