Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
99 0x99d1…ee7a crypto 669 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$829 (-3%) realized −$777 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%236W / 422L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day61.2pace
Fees−$314est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$546
7 days+$1,148
14 days+$1,919
30 days+$720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$1,046
crypto 22% −$695
other 4% +$253
culture 0% $0
politics 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +33.0% +20.3% 65% 58% +16.7%
≤30d 535 -4.3% -13.4% 37% 35% -8.0%
≤90d 658 -5.5% -14.5% 36% 34% -8.3%
all 658 -5.5% -14.5% 36% 34% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 34% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 32% -17.1%
15% -30.1% 31% -25.1%
20% -37.0% 29% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$23 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized−$777
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses236 / 422
Est. fees paid−$314
Open positions9
Markets (closed)658 / 669
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day61.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 658 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 55¢ 60¢ $181 $199 +$18 (+10%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $32 $37 +$4 (+13%)
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Yes 48¢ 62¢ $24 $31 +$7 (+28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 10¢ $100 $24 −$76 (-76%)
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch Yes 34¢ 38¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $103 +$97 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $203 +$97 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $115 +$35 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $47 −$29 -61%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$84 +83%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $95 +$105 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$110 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $132 +$139 +105%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $54 +$46 +87%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $55 +$45 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $62 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $228 +$172 +75%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$10 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$23 -78%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $279 +$180 +64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 14 $16 +$74 +452%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $93 +$137 +147%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $180 +$220 +122%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $181 −$31 -17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $168 −$99 -59%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 13 $5 +$16 +314%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $156 +$36 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $170 +$130 +77%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $65 +$35 +54%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$50 +100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $66 +$34 +53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $88 +$43 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $24 +$46 +188%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $17 +$10 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $32 +$18 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $68 +$32 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $120 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $335 −$78 -23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $91 −$91 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $97 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 75¢ $150 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $53 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 86¢ $86 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $29 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 19¢ $19 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $24 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $23 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $103 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $102 24h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $95 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goal BUY 24¢ $16 36h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 36h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $102 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 46h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $65 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $101 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $132 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 52¢ $26 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 55¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 32¢ $43 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 32¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 32¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 28¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 33¢ $34 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $36 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.11 · official $360.11 (match) · 3500 history records