Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
99 0x99d5…f854 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,000 (+39%) realized +$1,000 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$350
sports 35% +$1,350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +66.4% +50.5% 50% 50% +36.8%
≤30d 4 +66.4% +50.5% 50% 50% +36.8%
≤90d 4 +66.4% +50.5% 50% 50% +36.8%
all 4 +66.4% +50.5% 50% 50% +36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.5% 50% +36.8%
10% +36.1% 50% +23.7%
15% +23.0% 25% +11.7%
20% +10.9% 25% +0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$810 vs −$310 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,000
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $1,027 +$270 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $106 −$106 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway Jun 23 $307 +$1,350 +439%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $582.99 · 12 history records