Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
99 0x99d9…bd0a other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$49 (+5%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$12
14 days+$49
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$15
sports 37% +$78
world 4% −$40
politics 2% +$24
finance 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.9% -2.4% 43% 43% -0.9%
≤30d 23 +66.1% +50.3% 57% 57% +6.4%
≤90d 40 +31.9% +19.3% 52% 52% -8.5%
all 48 +32.6% +19.9% 54% 54% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.9% 54% -3.9%
10% +8.5% 54% -13.1%
15% -2.0% 54% -21.5%
20% -11.6% 44% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage112d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance Croatia 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$22 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$57 +559%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$16 +79%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Arsenal score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Champions League? May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Apr 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Apr 12 $20 +$11 +55%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. IK Start end in a draw? Apr 06 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $10 −$9 -91%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Emilio Nava Apr 06 $10 +$5 +50%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz, Qualification: Iryna Shymanovich vs Donna V Apr 06 $10 +$15 +145%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 03 $20 −$15 -77%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Moldova win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $20 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $20 +$12 +59%
Copa Colsanitas, Qualification: Katarina Zavatska vs Selena Janicijevi Mar 29 $20 +$12 +61%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $20 +$12 +61%
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate pa Mar 22 $20 +$24 +118%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 21 $20 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13? Mar 10 $10 +$9 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance BUY Croatia 32¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 69¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 8d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $68 8d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $20 12d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 12d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $22 12d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.55 · official $39.55 (match) · 95 history records