Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99d9…bdc1 crypto 896 markets active 5d ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate92%823W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -1.8% -11.1% 86% 33% -11.1%
≤30d 154 -0.2% -9.7% 88% 23% -9.7%
≤90d 896 +3.0% -6.8% 92% 9% -9.7%
all 896 +3.0% -6.8% 92% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 9% -9.7%
10% -15.7% 4% -18.3%
15% -23.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -31.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses823 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)896 / 896
History coverage70d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 896 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1845 history records