Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
99 0x99db…a2ab other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$194 (-6%) realized −$206 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$242
crypto 7% +$17
sports 3% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 52% -16.0%
≤30d 25 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 52% -16.0%
≤90d 25 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 52% -16.0%
all 25 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 52% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 52% -16.0%
10% -23.6% 40% -24.0%
15% -31.0% 28% -31.4%
20% -37.7% 20% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$78 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)25 / 30
History coverage5d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $250 $273 +$23 (+9%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 86¢ 86¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-27%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $400 +$48 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 +$11 +4%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $101 +$68 +67%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $191 +$30 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $251 −$250 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $250 +$17 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $302 +$78 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $273 +$32 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $241 +$23 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +56%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $60 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $30 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $251 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $400 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $300 34h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $101 42h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $221 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $191 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $151 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $302 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $305 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $143 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $118 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.13 · official $434.13 (match) · 64 history records