Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99dc…c7f5 world 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%42W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$5
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$16
other 26% +$1
sports 16% −$1
politics 9% +$1
economics 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.4% -12.6% 8% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 38 -0.9% -10.4% 37% 3% -10.3%
≤90d 89 -0.6% -10.1% 35% 1% -9.9%
all 119 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses42 / 77
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage344d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 82¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $94 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $31 −$3 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $57 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 −$8 -22%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $86 +$5 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $36 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $33 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $70 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $78 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $54 −$3 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $73 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $37 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $79 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $38 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $47 −$6 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $76 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $39 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $77 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $4 $0 -2%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $7 $0 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $257 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $28 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $26 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $25 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $25 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $27 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $27 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $21 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $21 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $27 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.28 · official $27.23 (match) · 448 history records