Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99e0…5052 sports 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$122,036 (-9%) realized −$108,552 · open −$13,484
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%90W / 128L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,755per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$8,777est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$32,522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35,248
7 days+$55,440
14 days+$59,607
30 days+$59,153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$146,748
other 16% +$13,866
world 1% +$10,258
crypto 0% −$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.1% -17.7% 39% 39% +25.2%
≤30d 27 -18.4% -26.2% 37% 37% +26.0%
≤90d 183 -37.0% -43.0% 31% 30% -36.4%
all 218 -13.4% -21.6% 41% 41% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 41% -17.3%
10% -29.1% 40% -25.3%
15% ← realistic here -36.0% 39% -32.5%
20% -42.3% 39% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$7,650) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,637 vs −$5,521 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$32,522
Realized−$108,552
Unrealized−$13,484
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses90 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$8,777
Open positions10
Markets (closed)218 / 228
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$5,755
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 52¢ $16,000 $13,649 −$2,351 (-15%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 30¢ $10,000 $5,455 −$4,545 (-45%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,400 $4,950 −$450 (-8%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $4,788 $4,842 +$55 (+1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $7,200 $990 −$6,210 (-86%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 43¢ $1,219 $989 −$230 (-19%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes $627 $947 +$321 (+51%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes $504 $467 −$36 (-7%)
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 21¢ 25¢ $132 $158 +$25 (+19%)
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 10¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-13%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 43¢ 42¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $13,686 +$11,314 +83%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Jun 18 $6,600 −$6,600 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) Jun 18 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Jun 18 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 18 $2,698 −$2,698 -100%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos Jun 18 $8,330 −$8,330 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11,200 −$11,200 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $4,440 −$4,440 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $4,096 −$4,096 -100%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10,120 −$10,120 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,064 +$7,281 +238%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,000 +$10,000 +100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10,153 +$10,255 +101%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $37,758 +$73,842 +196%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $708 +$761 +108%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,170 +$5,830 +113%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $3,051 +$1,446 +47%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $2,718 +$2,718 +100%
Will "Ragtime" win Best Revival of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +117%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $262 −$261 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $25 −$24 -99%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 27 $21 −$20 -99%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 25 $6,088 −$6,088 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 25 $5,590 −$5,590 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 216.5 Apr 24 $767 +$900 +117%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 215.5 Apr 24 $5,000 +$5,000 +100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $4 +$2 +54%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5 Apr 23 $2,765 +$2,996 +108%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Apr 19 $5,980 −$5,980 -100%
Bulls vs. Mavericks Apr 14 $5,580 +$3,139 +56%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Apr 12 $6,240 −$6,240 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $7 +$8 +117%
Spread: Heat (-15.5) Apr 12 $5,785 +$6,021 +104%
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5 Apr 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Pelicans vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5 Apr 10 $6,240 −$6,240 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $1,532 +$1,110 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $2,600 +$2,306 +89%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5 Apr 08 $202 +$219 +108%
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 Apr 08 $6,240 +$6,760 +108%
Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 219.5 Apr 07 $6,240 −$6,240 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-1.5) Apr 07 $6,500 −$6,500 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 07 $6,890 −$6,890 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $8,550 −$8,550 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Apr 07 $76 +$62 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10,120 8m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5,058 8m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1,012 8m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10,135 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $7,200 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 54¢ $13,686 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,782 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $224 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $224 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $224 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $210 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $129 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3,064 10h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $0 22h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 24h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,522.37 · official $33,325.15 · 3500 history records