Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99e4…e4c4 sports 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106,850 (-11%) realized −$40,531 · open −$66,319
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%86W / 86L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,321per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$11,642est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$16,198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$269,858
other 16% +$35,666
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +26.2% +14.1% 44% 28% +13.7%
≤30d 44 +9.3% -1.1% 66% 30% +0.6%
≤90d 172 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 40% -27.4%
all 172 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 40% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 40% -27.4%
10% -15.4% 34% -34.4%
15% ← realistic here -23.5% 31% -40.7%
20% -31.0% 30% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$5,475) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,704 vs −$5,791 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$16,198
Realized−$40,531
Unrealized−$66,319
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses86 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$11,642
Open positions3
Markets (closed)172 / 175
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$5,321
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 80¢ 80¢ $15,200 $15,105 −$95 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 88¢ 100¢ $924 $1,049 +$125 (+14%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 76¢ 0¢ $66,394 $44 −$66,350 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21,138 +$40,969 +194%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,299 +$37,899 +1149%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $329 +$188 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17,238 −$17,196 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15,967 +$348 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $544 −$544 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11,705 −$11,705 -100%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $196 −$192 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,264 −$5,183 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,963 +$166 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,835 +$238 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4,766 −$4,700 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $12,419 −$12,340 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5,475 +$2,386 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,438 −$1,409 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10,507 +$1,133 +11%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $4,565 −$4,489 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $164 −$158 -97%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7,633 +$8,025 +105%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $8,381 +$425 +5%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $431 +$22 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $3,728 +$2,383 +64%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 07 $130 +$20 +15%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $3,743 +$1,118 +30%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3,767 +$87 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $3,690 −$3,635 -98%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,409 +$74 +5%
Spread: Puerto Rico (-1.5) Jun 06 $122 +$10 +8%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $131 +$13 +10%
Spread: Puerto Rico (-2.5) Jun 06 $221 +$19 +8%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $4,324 +$316 +7%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $4,633 +$239 +5%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $248 +$34 +14%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $535 +$279 +52%
Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2,774 +$147 +5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $14,638 −$14,615 -100%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $1,289 +$45 +4%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $456 +$24 +5%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $316 +$15 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1,568 +$321 +20%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff May 30 $381 +$234 +61%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 13 $366 −$363 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater - Game 1 Winner May 13 $192 −$186 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $392 +$4,379 +1116%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $7,191 −$7,186 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $270 −$263 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $2,796 +$5,032 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $11,447 1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $8 1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $4 1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $120 1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $335 1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $4 1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $16 1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $3,286 1m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $274 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $924 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $45,600 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $62,107 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $20,520 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $20,599 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $3,513 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $17,566 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $20,599 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $29 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $12 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $18 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $3,299 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $2,839 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $2,032 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $4 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $1,296 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $7 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $2,773 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $12 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $1,303 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $7 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,198.16 · official $16,198.16 (match) · 3500 history records