Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99e4…1fd5 sports 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%53W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day44.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$28
14 days+$21
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 43% −$2
other 39% −$6
sports 12% −$22
crypto 6% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +12.6% +1.9% 78% 22% -11.0%
≤30d 75 -0.5% -10.0% 71% 53% -11.0%
≤90d 75 -0.5% -10.0% 71% 53% -11.0%
all 75 -0.5% -10.0% 71% 53% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 53% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 33% -19.5%
15% -26.5% 13% -27.3%
20% -33.7% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses53 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage24d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Up 76¢ 69¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $130 −$8 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $352 −$66 -19%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $642 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$2 +84%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $137 +$11 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $24 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $408 +$24 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $87 −$4 -4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $139 +$37 +27%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $498 −$37 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $273 +$41 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $232 −$8 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$6 +30%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $92 +$15 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $381 −$47 -12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $65 +$3 +5%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $145 −$34 -24%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 $0 -24%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $1 $0 +22%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 04 $16 −$11 -66%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $10 −$8 -82%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $40 −$12 -30%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $10 +$3 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 04 $20 −$8 -39%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $11 +$4 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +19%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $20 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 76¢ $30 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Down 100¢ $74 12h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 90¢ $20 16h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Up 5¢ $0 17h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 7¢ $0 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 95¢ $50 17h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Up 3¢ $2 17h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 93¢ $7 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 92¢ $5 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 92¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 90¢ $6 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 89¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 89¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 89¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 89¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 89¢ $4 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 88¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 88¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 89¢ $1 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 89¢ $4 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 89¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 87¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 87¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 87¢ $9 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 90¢ $6 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.23 · official $27.24 (match) · 1196 history records