Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99e6…ee2e crypto 1197 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate73%876W / 321L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$344
other 1% −$22
sports 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +14.5% +3.6% 77% 65% -15.3%
≤30d 82 +8.9% -1.5% 74% 63% -10.5%
≤90d 172 +4.6% -5.4% 72% 63% -13.5%
all 1197 -0.7% -10.1% 73% 62% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 62% -12.2%
10% -18.7% 42% -20.6%
15% -26.6% 24% -28.3%
20% -33.8% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses876 / 321
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1197 / 1197
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1197 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$12 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$42 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 30 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 29 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 29 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 29 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 29 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $4 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $24 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records