Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99e8…3d70 crypto 447 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (583 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$133 (-1%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%279W / 248L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day583.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (583 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 527 -16.1% -24.1% 53% 43% -12.5%
≤30d 527 -16.1% -24.1% 53% 43% -12.5%
≤90d 527 -16.1% -24.1% 53% 43% -12.5%
all 527 -16.1% -24.1% 53% 43% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover583.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 43% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 31% -20.9%
15% -38.0% 20% -28.5%
20% -44.1% 11% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses279 / 248
Open positions0
Markets (closed)527 / 447
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day583.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 527 Trades
no open positions (159 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 3? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 4? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 3? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 4? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 4? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $35 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $34 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $35 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $35 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $34 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $35 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $34 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $35 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $35 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $32 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $35 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $35 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $30 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $35 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $32 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $35 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $29 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $32 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $32 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $35 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $34 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $33 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $35 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $35 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records