Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x99eb…4524 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$20
politics 38% −$18
sports 7% −$4
tech 5% −$2
economics 4% −$2
crypto 2% −$1
culture 1% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage130d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $296 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $920 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $229 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $254 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $275 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $406 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $247 $0 +0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $246 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $288 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $264 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $295 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $240 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $256 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $256 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $246 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,126 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $270 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $285 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $245 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $266 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $433 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $244 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 11h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 19h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 26h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 19d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 20d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $290 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $290 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 23d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 24d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $197 25d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $197 25d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $229 25d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 25d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $248 25d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $248 26d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $271 26d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $271 26d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 28d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 420 history records