Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99ed…ac5e crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$7
other 28% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -12.4% -20.8% 58% 45% -17.7%
≤30d 31 -12.4% -20.8% 58% 45% -17.7%
≤90d 31 -12.4% -20.8% 58% 45% -17.7%
all 31 -12.4% -20.8% 58% 45% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 45% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 26% -25.6%
15% -35.3% 19% -32.8%
20% -41.6% 10% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.72 · official $32.72 (match) · 95 history records