Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x99ef…184d sports 177 markets active 3d ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$740 (+5%) realized +$740 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%100W / 77L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$56
14 days+$105
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$673
crypto 0% −$2
other 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 50% +6.1%
≤30d 41 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 41% -24.7%
≤90d 129 -5.0% -14.1% 52% 50% -7.7%
all 177 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 54% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 54% -5.8%
10% -19.1% 49% -14.9%
15% -26.9% 39% -23.1%
20% -34.1% 32% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$75 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$740
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses100 / 77
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage150d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$66 +216%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $43 +$31 +73%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $44 +$24 +55%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $99 +$148 +150%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $101 +$31 +31%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $22 −$22 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $39 +$39 +102%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $99 +$45 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $34 +$35 +104%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 31 $26 −$3 -10%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $11 +$14 +126%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $78 +$35 +44%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 26 $51 +$59 +116%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $51 +$96 +188%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $127 +$83 +66%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $19 −$19 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 21 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $31 +$39 +128%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $303 −$173 -57%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 19 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $101 +$2 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 19 $121 +$33 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $51 +$26 +51%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $202 +$120 +59%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $202 +$131 +64%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 16 $145 +$42 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $101 −$66 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 77¢ $15 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $97 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $29 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 31¢ $20 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $43 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $44 6d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 26¢ $28 10d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 49¢ $71 10d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 54¢ $101 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 39¢ $31 11d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 12d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 56¢ $22 15d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $78 16d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 68¢ $99 16d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $39 16d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 46¢ $20 17d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 98¢ $68 17d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 39¢ $10 17d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 52¢ $23 17d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 27¢ $23 17d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 29¢ $26 17d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $25 18d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 43¢ $11 18d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $112 18d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $78 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records