Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x99f1…1ebd sports 474 markets active 1h ago coverage 658d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$771 (+6%) realized +$774 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%221W / 246L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$286
14 days+$350
30 days+$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$857
other 12% +$266
crypto 4% −$270
politics 3% +$37
world 2% −$74
culture 2% −$52
tech 1% −$34
economics 1% +$51
finance 0% −$37
weather 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +30.6% +18.2% 58% 58% +30.7%
≤30d 72 +6.7% -3.5% 53% 53% +1.9%
≤90d 244 -32.1% -38.5% 35% 35% -16.0%
all 467 -2.6% -11.9% 47% 47% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 47% -4.4%
10% -20.3% 46% -13.6%
15% -28.0% 44% -21.9%
20% -35.1% 36% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$20 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

658d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$774
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses221 / 246
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions3
Markets (closed)467 / 474
History coverage658d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 56¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ 55¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alec Pierce be traded? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $25 +$39 +155%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $30 +$24 +79%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $30 +$25 +83%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $61 +$22 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$15 -60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$38 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $91 +$83 +92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $56 +$111 +197%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $36 +$46 +129%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $35 −$16 -46%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $30 +$27 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $48 +$31 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $14 −$13 -91%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $66 −$65 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $35 +$26 +73%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 07 $121 −$120 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $134 +$128 +96%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 06 $81 +$36 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $25 −$9 -34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $56 +$86 +154%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $81 +$62 +76%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $15 +$18 +119%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $35 +$28 +79%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $41 −$40 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $36 −$35 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $35 +$25 +70%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $45 +$23 +50%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $35 −$35 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $35 +$25 +70%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $35 −$35 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $90 +$115 +129%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $101 −$91 -90%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $37 −$37 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $35 +$25 +70%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $35 −$35 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $35 +$28 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 27 $35 +$31 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $36 +$34 +97%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $20 +$10 +52%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $36 −$35 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 34¢ $25 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $35 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $25 26h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $30 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $30 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 22¢ $5 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $30 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $30 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 44¢ $29 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $30 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) AND Will Ecua BUY 5¢ $3 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY 21¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $26 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $15 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 46¢ $15 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 4d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $10 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 30¢ $19 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $31 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $36 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $35 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $30 6d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $81 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) SELL Spurs 100¢ $80 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.07 · official $90.07 · 1003 history records